N igeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has seen a sharp economic downturn over the past decade, with GDP per capita plunging by 72.35%, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The country’s GDP per capita fell from $3,022 in 2014 to just $835.49 in 2024, reflecting a severe contraction in economic output per person. Additionally, total GDP dropped from $568.5 billion in 2014 to $194.96 billion in 2024, marking a 65.71% decline in overall economic value.
Economic growth has also slowed significantly, with real GDP growth falling from 6.3% in 2014 to just 2.9% in 2024. The situation worsened following policy reforms in 2023 under President Bola Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidies and currency devaluation, which triggered record inflation of 34.8% in December 2024.
Soaring Inflation and Currency Devaluation
Economists warn that despite government claims of economic recovery, key indicators suggest persistent decline.
Former Zenith Bank Chief Economist Marcel Okeke criticized the government’s economic policies, pointing to:
- Inflation rising from 22.4% in May 2023 to 34.8% in December 2024
- The naira’s depreciation from below ₦500 per dollar in May 2023 to between ₦1,000 and ₦1,500 today
- Fuel prices surging from below ₦200 per liter to nearly ₦1,000 per liter
“The government is asking citizens to tighten their belts, but the reality is that the economy is in persistent decline,” Okeke said.
Oil Sector Struggles Despite Temporary Boost
Oil remains Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange, accounting for over 90% of total exports. However, the country has struggled to meet its OPEC production quota, further straining government revenue.
OPEC recently reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.53 million barrels per day in January 2024, meeting its 1.5 million bpd target for the first time since November 2023. However, analysts warn that pipeline vandalism and underinvestment continue to threaten production stability.
Bleak Economic Outlook
Development economist Aliyu Ilias attributed Nigeria’s falling GDP per capita to the prolonged depreciation of the naira, emphasizing that key economic indicators show no sign of improvement.
He warned that without urgent policy action to boost production, balance trade, improve security, and ensure food and energy security, Nigeria’s GDP will continue to decline, and citizens’ living conditions will worsen.
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