H igh-stakes diplomacy played out in Riyadh as the United States and Russia held their first major talks since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The February 18 meeting at Diriyah Palace delivered mixed outcomes: Russia walked away with a subtle but symbolic win, Ukraine was left fuming over its exclusion, and Europe found itself scrambling to reclaim its relevance in the crisis.
Russia’s Strategic Victory
For Moscow, the talks marked a rare moment of legitimacy on the global stage. While Russia continues to frame its invasion as a defensive move against NATO expansion, the meeting itself—held under U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration—lent weight to that narrative. Even without a breakthrough, the diplomatic engagement was a win in itself.
A key takeaway was U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s proposal to restore full diplomatic staffing at embassies in Washington and Moscow, a reversal of years of diplomatic expulsions that began with Russia’s 2018 poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal in the UK. This, alongside the recent release of American teacher Marc Fogel in a prisoner swap, signaled a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations—something the Kremlin is eager to capitalize on.
Despite the apparent goodwill, no immediate Trump-Putin summit was announced. Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov described the 4.5-hour talks as productive but stopped short of committing to a next step, signaling a cautious approach from Moscow.
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| Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky |
Ukraine’s Outrage
For Kyiv, being sidelined from the negotiations was an infuriating blow. President Volodymyr Zelensky, who canceled a scheduled trip to Riyadh upon learning of the talks through media reports rather than diplomatic channels, didn’t hold back his frustration. “I don’t care what our partners think. We will not accept decisions made without us,” he declared.
His concerns aren’t unfounded. U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz hinted at discussions involving “territorial concessions” and “security guarantees,” phrases that strike fear into Ukrainian leadership. For now, Kyiv has a temporary reprieve, as the talks yielded no immediate agreements. But with over 31,000 civilian deaths and millions displaced since 2022, according to the UN, time is not on Ukraine’s side.
Europe’s Moment of Panic
The Riyadh talks also sent shockwaves through Europe. Just days earlier, Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg suggested Europe would be cut out of any peace negotiations, sparking an emergency summit in Paris. The swift U.S.-Russia engagement forced a pivot—Waltz now insists Europe remains an “essential player,” an apparent effort to soothe rattled allies.
European leaders are now scrambling to regain a foothold. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to meet Trump in Washington next week, while France and Denmark are considering deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine—a proposal that Germany and other NATO members remain wary of. The renewed urgency underscores Europe’s fear that an American-brokered deal with Russia could leave them vulnerable to further Russian aggression.
The Bigger Picture
With Russia’s slow but steady military advances—holding nearly 20% of Ukraine’s territory with 300,000 troops engaged—Moscow is in no rush to compromise. The U.S., eager for a resolution under Trump’s leadership, is navigating delicate waters, balancing pressure on Ukraine while maintaining a firm stance against unchecked Russian expansion.
Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s guidance, continues to position itself as a key mediator, leveraging its growing diplomatic influence. Hosting the talks allowed Riyadh to flex its geopolitical muscle, further solidifying its role in global affairs.
What’s Next?
As U.S.-Russia negotiations continue, the pressure on Ukraine to assert itself grows. Meanwhile, Europe must decide whether to take a more assertive role or risk being relegated to the sidelines. All eyes are now on Starmer’s upcoming Washington visit, which could determine whether Europe regains influence or if the balance of power continues shifting eastward.
For now, Russia holds a psychological edge, Ukraine remains on edge, and Europe is left playing catch-up. The next round of talks could prove decisive—but for whom remains the million-dollar question.
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