I n a high-stakes maneuver that could shape the future of the Gaza ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sidelined his security chiefs and appointed his close political confidant, Ron Dermer, as the lead negotiator for phase two of peace talks. The move, announced on Tuesday, February 18, 2025, signals a shift from a security-driven strategy to a more politically charged approach—one that could either cement the fragile truce or push the region back into conflict.
A Shift in Strategy
According to sources within the Israeli government, Netanyahu’s decision to replace Mossad chief David Barnea—who played a key role in securing the January ceasefire—with Dermer, Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, marks a significant power shift. The second phase of negotiations, focused on ending the war and securing an Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, will now see Dermer engage directly with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.
The exclusion of Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet, further deepens the growing rift between Netanyahu and Israel’s security establishment, which has often clashed with him over the handling of the conflict. While Netanyahu’s office maintains that talks will soon begin, skepticism looms over the prime minister’s political motivations. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has already warned that he will withdraw from the ruling coalition if Israel does not resume military operations by March 1, when the current ceasefire is set to expire.
Hamas’s Calculated Response
Meanwhile, Hamas appears to be accelerating its commitments under the ongoing 42-day ceasefire agreement. On Thursday, the group is expected to release the bodies of four deceased hostages, including the youngest Israeli captives, Kfir and Ariel Bibas. This will be followed by the release of six living hostages on Saturday and four additional bodies next week. In return, Israel is set to release Palestinian prisoners.
Despite this progress, Hamas has voiced frustrations over Israel’s reluctance to allow essential aid—such as prefabricated housing and heavy machinery—into Gaza. Netanyahu’s government insists that only limited supplies will be permitted, tying aid delivery to broader political objectives, including Trump’s contentious plan for Palestinian “voluntary emigration” and US oversight of Gaza. The proposal, widely condemned by Arab leaders, has fueled concerns over forced displacement.
Global Reactions and Uncertainty
The diplomatic shake-up has sparked reactions worldwide. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has suggested postponing the next phase of talks if negotiations appear promising but warned that military action remains on the table if discussions falter. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Jordan’s King Abdullah II have urged a balanced approach, though Trump’s vision for Gaza continues to divide opinion.
Public discourse, particularly on social media, reflects a mix of skepticism and cautious optimism. Some observers see Netanyahu’s decision as a calculated effort to placate hardliners like Smotrich, while others question whether Hamas’s latest concessions indicate a shift in strategy.
The Situation on the Ground
In Gaza, the ceasefire has offered a brief respite, but the humanitarian situation remains dire. While aid is slowly arriving, entire neighborhoods, such as Beit Lahia, remain in ruins. The United Nations reports that over 41,000 Palestinians have been killed since the conflict began in October 2023, warning that reconstruction could take decades if a lasting peace is not secured.
What Lies Ahead?
The coming days will be pivotal. If Dermer and Witkoff can bridge the divide between Israel’s demand for Hamas’s removal from governance and Hamas’s insistence on political legitimacy, the ceasefire may hold. However, with Netanyahu’s political survival hanging in the balance and pressure mounting from all sides, the road to peace remains uncertain.
Hamas’s willingness to release hostages signals a potential opening for diplomacy, but without a concrete framework, the risk of renewed conflict looms large.
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