In recent weeks, the political landscape of Nigeria has been abuzz with the escalating tension between Nasir El-Rufai, the immediate past governor of Kaduna State, and elements within the All Progressives Congress (APC). This rift became public when El-Rufai's son, Bashir El-Rufai, took to Twitter, boldly stating that "nobody is too big to be voted out in 2027." This remark came on the heels of a fallout between Nasir El-Rufai and the presidency, coupled with a media and political campaign seemingly aimed at diminishing El-Rufai's influence ahead of the 2027 elections, where President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is expected to seek re-election.
The conflict intensified further when The Nation newspaper, allegedly owned by President Tinubu, published a scathing article titled "Like Father, Like Fraud," targeting El-Rufai. The piece has sparked debates across the political spectrum, raising questions about the motivations behind this apparent internal conflict within the APC.
Is this a case of karma catching up with Nasir El-Rufai, a prominent critic of former President Goodluck Jonathan? Or is it a strategic move by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, known for his political acumen, to neutralize a potential rival ahead of the next election?
Nasir El-Rufai has never been one to shy away from controversy. Known for his outspoken nature and sharp critiques, he has often found himself at the center of political storms. His recent exclusion from the ministerial list, however, marked a significant point of contention. Many analysts believe this move was designed to curtail El-Rufai's growing influence within the party and the nation.
Bashir El-Rufai’s tweet amplified these speculations, suggesting that the presidency and its allies are wary of El-Rufai's potential to disrupt the status quo. "Nobody is too big to be elected out of office by the people. It will happen & wallahi nothing will happen. So forget all these intimidations flying up and down. Let us be patient. Even IMF & World Bank no go save una that time. Political strategist una. That one na for Lagos.......I didn't call names o, but due to their guilt, they already know who is being spoken about. Wallahi, none of you will force anyone to support this utter failure of governance disguised as useless, dangerous ethnocentric political strategy," Bashir tweeted.
This public declaration has been interpreted as a clear indication of the brewing discontent within the APC, potentially signaling a fracturing party ahead of the 2027 elections. The response from The Nation newspaper, with its direct attack on El-Rufai, underscores the severity of the situation.
Adding fuel to the fire, Nasir El-Rufai has recently been seen with Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, and rumors suggest he visited former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. These meetings hint at a potential northern coalition forming in opposition to the current administration. The speculation gains further traction with reports of Peter Obi also meeting with Atiku Abubakar, suggesting a broader alignment against Tinubu’s re-election bid.
The big question remains: Is Bola Ahmed Tinubu outmaneuvering El-Rufai, or is this simply the unfolding of a long-awaited reckoning for El-Rufai’s political maneuvers? Tinubu's reputation as a shrewd and strategic politician adds weight to the theory that he might be preemptively countering El-Rufai’s influence to secure his position for the 2027 race.
As the drama continues to unfold, it is clear that the political dynamics within the APC are shifting. Whether this will lead to a significant realignment ahead of the next election or merely a temporary skirmish remains to be seen.
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